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为了更好地利用信息技术支持应急管理,提高交通应急指挥系统救援效率,以路面塌陷事故为例,利用随机着色Petri网(SCPN)对其应急响应流程进行动态离散建模,根据同构的马尔可夫链(MC)分析模型的有效性,最后利用马尔可夫链及模糊数学的相关理论对交通应急指挥系统进行性能分析。结果表明:救援信息、交通路网动态信息、应急资源信息及时态控制信息反馈环节容易产生信息堆积,应提高综合监控的技术水平;专家决策制定出警预案、善后处理耗时较长,应作为流程优化的重点。
In order to make better use of information technology to support emergency management and improve the rescue efficiency of traffic emergency command system, taking the road surface collapse accident as an example, the Stochastic Colored Petri Net (SCPN) is used to dynamically and discretely model its emergency response process. The validity of the MC model is analyzed. Finally, the performance of the traffic emergency command system is analyzed by using Markov chain theory and fuzzy mathematics. The results show that the information of rescue information, traffic network dynamic information, emergency resource information and temporal control information feedback tend to accumulate information, and the technical level of comprehensive monitoring should be improved. The expert decision-making of police precaution case takes longer time to deal with aftermath and should be used as a process Optimization of the focus.