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适时把握影响夏玉米产量波动的气象因子,趋利避害,采取合理的管理措施,获得夏玉米高产稳产是笔者研究的目的;采用线性拟合回归分析和相关分析等统计分析方法,对濮阳市1970—2009年共40年的夏玉米单产量,与同期气象因子的关系进行综合分析,结果得出:6月中旬和8月下旬的降水、8月下旬和9月上旬的气温、7月上旬和8月上旬的日照时数等是影响夏玉米产量波动的关键气象因子,6月上中旬播种期的干旱、7月上旬拔节期的卡脖旱、8月上旬开花授粉期的雨涝是夏玉米生育期中几个需要注意的气候现象;夏玉米产量气象波动指数为0.139,占实际产量变异系数(0.3914)的35.51%,气象因子是影响夏玉米产量波动的主要因子。
Timely grasping the meteorological factors that affect the yield fluctuation of summer maize, taking advantages and avoiding disadvantages and adopting reasonable management measures to get high yield and stable yield of summer maize is the purpose of the author’s research. Using statistical methods such as linear fitting regression analysis and correlation analysis, A total of 40 years of summer maize from 1970 to 2009, a comprehensive analysis of the relationship with the meteorological factors over the same period, the results obtained: precipitation in mid-June and late August, the temperature in late August and early September, early July And the sunshine hours in the first ten days of August are the key meteorological factors that affect the yield fluctuation of summer maize. The drought in the upper mid-June sowing season, the drought in the jointing stage in early July and the rain-flood in the early pollination in early August are summer There are several notable climate phenomena during maize growth stage. The meteorological fluctuation index of summer maize yield is 0.139, accounting for 35.51% of the actual yield coefficient of variation (0.3914). The meteorological factors are the main factors that affect the yield fluctuation of summer maize.