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* 中国人民银行加息了。我们预计,在未来12—18个月内,中国的利率水平还会再提升200～300个基点。* 中国政府已经放弃了行政型紧缩,转向使用市场驱动型紧缩。我们坚持我们关于中国经济增长预测和论据,也就是说,中国经济将面临投资硬着陆、GDP增长软着陆、消费不会衰退。中国政府必须关注的主要风险是房地产市场价格的变动,房地产价格变动对投资和消费起到了连接渠道的作用。* 中国需求真的萎缩后,国际市场商品的价格与机器设备需求受到的影响最大。
* People’s Bank of China raised interest rates. We expect that in the next 12 to 18 months, China’s interest rate will rise another 200 to 300 basis points. * The Chinese government has given up its administrative tightening and turned to market-driven austerity. We uphold our prediction and arguments on China’s economic growth. That is to say, China’s economy will face a hard landing in investment, a soft landing in GDP growth, and a decline in consumer spending. The main risk that the Chinese government must pay attention to is the change of the real estate market price. The change of the real estate price has played a connecting channel for investment and consumption. * After China’s demand has really shrunk, the prices of commodities in the international market and the demand for machinery and equipment have been the most affected.