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装备的保障过程由于受到保障活动参数的影响存在着较大的不确定性.针对保障过程的不确定性问题,建立了基于方差的保障活动不确定性重要度作为保障过程全局敏感性分析指标;根据保障过程工期的GERT(Graphic Evaluation and Review Technique)模型,设计了一种基于方差的保障时间不确定分析方法来计算保障活动的时间不确定性重要度,并对该方法进行解析求解,给出了具体步骤.最后,将舰载机航空保障作为案例,验证了方法的有效性.
Due to the influence of the parameters of security activities, there is great uncertainty in the guarantee process of equipment.Aiming at the uncertainty of the security process, the importance of uncertainty of security activities based on variance is established as the global sensitivity analysis index of security process. According to the model of GERT (Graphic Evaluation and Review Technique) which guarantees the duration of the process, a method based on variance to guarantee the uncertainty of time is designed to calculate the importance of the time uncertainty of the guarantee activity, and the method is solved analytically. The specific steps.Finally, the aircraft carrier aviation security as a case to verify the effectiveness of the method.