本文首先研究了基于参数模型的智能化预测,人类专家对预测问题的认知模式与预测模型的智能化选取问题,然后,介绍了所研制的一个基于参数模型的智能化预测系统,应用该系统完成了某大型工厂每月故障停机台时的预测.该系统能正确、合理地选择预测模型,预测准确率在90%以上,并能由此分析设备故障停机的规律,反映设备的工作能力和老化程度,为工厂的设备管理与生产计划提供可靠的信息. In this paper, firstly, the intelligent prediction based on parameter model, the intelligent model of human expert’s prediction of prediction and the intelligent selection of prediction model are introduced. Then, an intelligent prediction system based on parameter model is introduced. By using this system The forecast of a large factory’s monthly stoppage is completed.The system can correctly and reasonably choose the forecasting model with the prediction accuracy above 90% and can analyze the regularity of equipment downtime and reflect the working ability of the equipment and The degree of aging, for the plant’s equipment management and production planning to provide reliable information.