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对上海市2000年11月提高商品房预售条件对现房市场价格的影响进行了实证研究。以期房市场对现房市场价格的稳定效应为出发点,分析取消商品房预售制度对中国房地产市场产生的可能影响。广义自回归条件异方差模型分析表明:提高预售条件不仅从长期显著提高了上海市现房市场的价格水平,而且还导致上海市现房市场价格波动性的显著增强。就稳定住房价格这一房地产业宏观调控目标而言,短期内直接取消商品房预售制度并不具备可行性。
This paper conducts an empirical research on the effect of raising pre-sale conditions of commercial housing on the current market price of Shanghai in November 2000. Taking the stabilization effect of the real estate market on the current market price as the starting point, the paper analyzes the possible impact of the pre-sale system of commercial housing on the real estate market in China. The analysis of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model shows that raising pre-sale conditions not only significantly increases the price level of Shanghai’s current market in the long run, but also significantly increases the price volatility of the existing market in Shanghai. To stabilize the housing price of the real estate macro-control objectives, the direct cancellation of pre-sale real estate system is not feasible.