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城镇规模的扩张离不开水资源的支撑,水资源承载力是影响城镇开发的重要因素。论文提出一种以水资源约束测算城镇开发度阈值及从“状态—趋势—效应”尺度进行开发度预警的方法,并以江苏省为例进行实证探索,最终划分综合预警分区。结果显示:到2020年,苏州、无锡、常州、南京将成为重度预警区;徐州、连云港为高度预警区;镇江、扬州、泰州、南通为中度预警区;淮安、宿迁、盐城为轻度预警区。利用GM(1,1)模型和相关方程,对城镇开发度、开发容量、开发临界时点及开发后温度变化与碳汇损益定性定量化,进行整个开发过程的模拟,客观反映城镇开发安全变化的动态性,以期为政府制定差别化的开发政策和预警措施提供科学依据和理论支撑。
The expansion of urban area can not be separated from the support of water resources, and the carrying capacity of water resources is an important factor that affects the development of cities and towns. This paper presents a method to measure the threshold of urban development degree with water resources constraint and early warning of development degree from the state of “state-trend-effect”. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, this paper makes an empirical study and finally divides the comprehensive early warning zone. The results show that: Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing will become the heavy warning areas by 2020; Xuzhou and Lianyungang will be the highly precautionary areas; Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, Taizhou and Nantong will be medium precautionary areas; Huaian, Suqian and Yancheng will be mild warning Area. Using the GM (1,1) model and related equations, the urban development degree, development capacity, development critical point, post-development temperature change and carbon sinks gain and loss are qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated, and the entire development process is simulated to objectively reflect the safety changes in urban development With a view to providing scientific basis and theoretical support for the government to formulate differentiated development policies and early warning measures.