文章采用基于需求变化的动态调整模型,利用1985—2008年数据,分析我国城乡居民医疗保健消费需求变化对中成药和化学药品原药产业发展的影响。分析结果表明,转型时期制药产业的发展一定程度上受居民医疗保健需求变化的影响。城镇居民医疗保健消费需求增长对中成药无论短期影响还是长期影响均大于化学药品原药,农村居民的情况则相反,医疗保健消费需求对化学药品原药无论短期影响还是长期影响均大于中成药。 Based on the dynamic adjustment model based on the change of demand and the data of 1985-2008, the article analyzes the influence of the change of consumption demand of urban and rural residents on the development of proprietary Chinese medicines and chemical raw materials industries. The results of the analysis show that the development of the pharmaceutical industry in the transitional period is affected to some extent by changes in the demand for health care by residents. The growth of health care consumer demand for urban residents has shown that both short-term and long-term effects on proprietary Chinese medicines are greater than those of chemical drugs, while the rural residents are the opposite. Consumption of medical care has a greater impact on both the short-term and the long-term effects of the original chemical drugs than proprietary Chinese medicines.