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就像在新年之际,人人都许愿希望自己减肥成功一样,来年的趋势也是年底时每个人都挂在嘴边的话题。然而,媒体的这种年度惯例所带来的副作用就是各种考虑欠周的预测和模棱两可的预言会出现在你耳边。以下是2014年年底争议最大、最不符其实的几个预测:1、内容至上;2、一体化;3、移动时代已经到来;4、公共关系将原地踏步;5、Google+;6、3D打印;7、可穿戴技术与增强现实将引领未来变革。以上对现象的描述根本无法再现当今飞速发展的社会中所充斥的诸多独特想法。然而,我们却以媒体消费者的身份将信将疑地看着此类信息经由各种途径被宣传和解读。趋势预测面临可信度的问题,最佳途径莫过于首先了解趋势预测为何会一败涂地的四个原因。
Just as everybody on the New Year wishes to hope for success in losing weight, the trend of the coming year is also a topic that everyone is talking about at the end of the year. However, the side-effect of this annual convention by the media is that a variety of less-than-predictive and ambiguous predictions will come to your ears. The following is the most controversial end of 2014, the most unrealistic forecast: 1, the content first; 2, integration; 3, the mobile era has come; 4, public relations will be in place; 5, Google +; 6,3 D Print ; 7, wearable technology and augmented reality will lead the future change. The above descriptions of phenomena simply fail to reproduce the many unique ideas that are flooding in today’s rapidly evolving society. However, we are skeptical of the identity of the media consumer as such information is being advertised and interpreted in various ways. The best way to make the trend predictions face credibility is to first understand the four reasons why trend predictions are lost.