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海-气界面CO2通量的估算对于碳的生物地球化学循环和全球气候变化等研究具有重要的意义,利用遥感手段是进行全球尺度海表面碳通量估算的唯一手段,但是由于不确定性的存在限制了海-气界面CO2通量遥感估算产品在决策应用上的可靠性。本文通过建立海-气界面CO2通量直接控制参量(气体交换速率k、海表面CO2溶解度S和海表面CO2分压pCO2sw)误差结构图,以通量估算的主要影响因子——海表温度(SST)为例,建立了SST在通量计算中的误差传递流程图,并采用Monte Carlo方法模拟了SST误差在通量计算中的传递规律和对最终误差的贡献。结果表明在遥感SST误差为±0.5°C并为正态分布的假设下,误差在k、S计算中的传递为指数分布和近似指数分布,而在pCO2sw模型计算中为正态分布,最终在通量FC O中的传递为指数分布;在大气CO22分压为固定值370μatm的情况下,SST对最终的通量结果带来的误差为±1.2mmol/(m2·d)左右。本文以SST为例,提供了一种通量计算中遥感参数误差传递和贡献的计算方法,可以为其它遥感获取的参量提供分析依据和参考。
Estimation of CO 2 flux at the sea-air interface is of great significance for the research on biogeochemical cycles and global climate change of carbon. The use of remote sensing is the only means to estimate carbon fluxes on the sea surface at the global scale. However, due to uncertainties There is a limit to the sea-air interface CO2 flux estimation of the reliability of the product in the decision-making applications. In this paper, the error structure of direct control of CO2 fluxes at sea-air interface (gas exchange rate k, CO2 solubility at the sea surface and pCO2sw at the sea surface) was established. The main influencing factors of flux estimation-sea surface temperature ( SST) as an example, the error transfer flow chart of SST in flux calculation was established and Monte Carlo simulation was used to simulate the transfer rule of SST error in flux calculation and its contribution to final error. The results show that under the assumption of remote sensing SST error of ± 0.5 ° C and normal distribution, the error is exponential and approximate exponential distribution in k and s calculation and normally distributed in pCO2sw model. Finally, The transfer in the flux FCO is exponential; with an atmospheric CO22 partial pressure of 370μatm, the error of the SST to the final flux result is around ± 1.2mmol / (m2 · d). This paper takes SST as an example to provide a method for calculating the error propagation and contribution of remote sensing parameters in flux calculation. It can provide the basis and reference for other remote sensing acquired parameters.