本文从动力学定律出发,推导了一个线性的、具有下垫面温度耦合的大气环流的统计—动力模式,并用该模式对500hPa高度场及1000hPa温度场作1～30天的平均预报试验。模式的预报结果大大优于惯性预报,但耦合与不耦合的结果差别不大。 Based on the law of dynamics, this paper deduces a linear statistical statistic-dynamic model of atmospheric circulation with temperature-coupled underlying surface, and uses this model to test the 500 hPa geopotential height field and 1000 hPa temperature field for an average of 1 to 30 days. The prediction results of the model are much better than those of the inertial forecast, but the results of coupling and non-coupling are not different.