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基于1996年～2012年中国水果生产与价格相关数据,在对水果供给弹性估计的基础上,运用Minot福利效应测算模型,对水果生产价格波动对生产者福利的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:水果价格波动的短期生产者福利主要由PR值决定,而PR值呈局部上升、整体下降的趋势;水果价格波动的生产者福利状况不容乐观,在小农经营的背景下,长期累计的福利改善对于农户生产积极性的促进作用十分有限;水果生产者福利变化与水果生产价格波动方向一致;水果价格波动的长期生产者福利效应与短期生产者福利效应变动方向一致,长期福利优于短期福利,但差别不明显。
Based on the data of fruit production and price from 1996 to 2012 in China, based on the elasticity estimation of fruit supply, the paper uses Minot welfare effect measurement model to analyze the impact of the fluctuation of fruit production price on the welfare of producers. The results show that the short-term producer welfare of the fluctuating fruit prices is mainly determined by the PR value, while the PR value shows a partial upward trend and an overall downward trend. The welfare status of the producer with fluctuating fruit prices is not optimistic. Under the background of small-scale farming, Welfare improvements have a very limited effect on promoting the enthusiasm of farmers; the welfare changes of fruit producers are in the same direction as the prices of fruit production; the long-term producer welfare effects of fluctuating fruit prices are in the same direction as those of short-term producers, and the long-term benefits are superior to short-term benefits , But the difference is not obvious.