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基于WIOD数据库,运用非竞争型投入产出模型测算中国2008年~2014年出口总量、大类产业和中类制造业的出口附加值率,与美国、德国和韩国出口附加值率进行比较。结果表明:总体出口附加值呈上升趋势,传统出口额虚高约20%。各大类产业出口附加值率差异显著,房地产和金融保险等服务产业出口附加值率最高,计算机、电子产品和光学产品制造出口附加值率最低。高、中、低端技术制造业出口附加值率稳定上升,高端技术制造业出口附加值率低于中、低端技术制造业出口附加值率。2014年四国总体出口附加值率从高到低依次为美国、中国、德国和韩国。中国高端制造业出口附加值率显著低于美国,高端技术制造业出口附加值率低是导致中国制造业整体附加值率低的主要原因。为此,提出改进贸易统计方法和优化出口产业结构等对策建议。
Based on the WIOD database, the non-competitive input-output model was used to estimate the value-added of exports in China’s total exports, large-scale industries and manufacturing industries from 2008 to 2014, and compared with the value added of exports of the United States, Germany and South Korea. The results show that: the overall export value added upward trend, the traditional export value of about 20%. The value-added rate of various industries was significantly different. The value-added rate of service industries such as real estate and financial insurance was the highest, and the value-added rate of exports of computers, electronic products and optical products was the lowest. The export value-added rate of manufacturing industries with high, medium and low-end technologies has been steadily rising. The value-added rate of high-tech manufacturing exports is lower than that of medium and low-tech manufacturing exports. In 2014, the overall value added rate of exports of the four countries in descending order was the United States, China, Germany and South Korea. The value-added rate of China’s high-end manufacturing exports was significantly lower than that of the United States. The high value-added exports of the high-tech manufacturing sectors were the major reasons for the low value-added rate in the Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole. To this end, we put forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve trade statistics and optimize the structure of export industries.