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具有内生关联的高耗能产业群循环经济建设过程是一复杂的系统工程,应通过调控实现产业群的循环经济协同发展从而优化综合效益。运用协同论和系统动力学理论对这一过程进行了模拟实证研究。通过选择反映经济、环境、社会绩效的序参量指标,构建了高耗能产业群循环经济协同发展的多绩效评价指标体系,从中筛选建立系统动力学模型的各种参量。选取了具有循环经济建设相关性的六个主要高耗能产业模拟作为高耗能产业群。基于2005-2011年的高耗能产业群有关数据的汇总,通过系统动力学分析,得到了影响高耗能产业群循环经济发展过程的主要变量为利润总额、工业中间投入、综合能耗、工业水耗、固定资产投资、工业用水重复利用率。从中筛选了三个有代表性的调控方案,得到了优化调控方案,即兼顾环境指标与污染源治理投资的调控方案,实证表明该优化方案可以显著提高产业群循环经济的综合绩效协同效应。该研究的意义是,提供了一种深入分析和模拟研究高耗能产业群循环经济协同发展效应的定量方法。
Endogenous energy-intensive industrial clusters with an endogenous recycling economy construction process is a complex system engineering, industrial clusters should be coordinated through the coordinated development of circular economy to optimize the overall efficiency. Using the theory of synergetics and system dynamics, this process is simulated and empirically studied. By selecting index parameters that reflect the economic, environmental and social performance, a multi-performance evaluation index system based on synergistic development of circular economy of high-energy-consuming industries is constructed, and various parameters of system dynamics model are screened out. Six major high-energy-consuming industrial simulations with relevance to the construction of circular economy were selected as high energy-consuming industrial clusters. Based on the summary of relevant data of high-energy-consuming industrial clusters from 2005 to 2011, the main variables influencing the development of circular economy in high energy-consuming industrial clusters were obtained through system dynamics analysis as total profit, intermediate investment, comprehensive energy consumption, industrial Water Consumption, Investment in Fixed Assets, Reuse of Industrial Water. Three representative control programs were screened out and the optimal control plan was obtained, that is, the control plan of both environmental indicators and investment of pollution source management was empirically demonstrated. The results show that the optimized scheme can significantly improve the overall performance synergy effect of circular economy in industrial clusters. The significance of this research is to provide a quantitative method for in-depth analysis and simulation of the synergistic effect of circular economy in high-energy-consuming industries.