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在相关理论分析的基础上,本文利用1989—2014年粮食主产区13个省的省际面板数据,综合考察了粮食价格波动及农业补贴对粮食主产区农户福利变化的影响。理论分析结果显示,农业补贴可以通过收入效应和替代效应影响主产区农户福利;粮食零售价格和生产价格是主产区农户福利变化的重要因素。实证结果证明,粮食价格波动引致的主产区农户福利存在明显的省际差异;农业补贴的收入效应、农业生产比以及粮食生产价格和零售价格共同影响着粮食主产区农户的福利:收入效应显著促进了农户福利水平的提高,替代效应没有引致农户福利的相应变化,农业生产比反方向作用于农户福利,粮食零售价格变化影响着农户消费福利反方向变化,粮食生产价格变化影响着农户生产福利同方向变化并在更大程度上引导了总福利变化趋势。研究结论的政策意义:实时动态调整粮食生产结构和区域布局,提升粮食生产的整体收益率;继续加大粮食生产收入性补贴的同时,改革和加强粮食生产性补贴;优化农业生产经营制度环境,保障粮食主产区农户生产福利;建立差异化的农业政策,提升政策支持粮食生产的精准度。
Based on the relevant theoretical analysis, this paper uses the inter-provincial panel data of 13 provinces in the major grain-producing areas from 1989 to 2014 to comprehensively investigate the impact of grain price fluctuations and agricultural subsidies on the changes of farmers’ welfare in the main grain-producing areas. The results of theoretical analysis show that agricultural subsidies can affect the well-being of peasants in the main producing areas through the income effect and substitution effect. The retail price of grain and the production price are the important factors for the changes of peasant welfare in the main producing areas. Empirical results show that there are obvious inter-provincial differences in welfare of farmers in major producing areas caused by food price fluctuations. The income effect of agricultural subsidies, agricultural production ratio and grain production prices and retail prices affect the welfare of farmers in main grain-producing areas: income effect The welfare effect of peasant households was significantly improved. The substitution effect did not lead to the corresponding changes of peasant welfare. Agricultural production was more effective than peasant welfare in the opposite direction. The changes of grain retail prices affected the anti-directional changes of peasant household welfare. Welfare changes in the same direction and to a greater extent guide the trend of total welfare. The policy implications of the research conclusions: real-time dynamic adjustment of grain production structure and regional distribution to enhance the overall yield of grain production; continue to increase income subsidies for food production at the same time, reform and strengthen food production subsidies; optimize the agricultural production and management system environment, Guarantee the welfare of farmer households in the main grain producing areas; establish differentiated agricultural policies and enhance the accuracy of policies to support food production.