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食品价格是CPI里面最为重要的分项价格;而猪肉和蔬菜价格又是食品价格波动中主要的来源。因此,本文以猪肉和蔬菜价格为切入点,对CPI在中期的走势进行了分析。得到的结论有:在6—7月,CPI同比上升幅度仍将保持温和态势。至8—10月,CPI同比上升压力将显现:在3月份的基础上,蔬菜价格和猪肉价格将推动CPI环比走高1%至1.5%;其他因素也将对CPI具有一定的支撑和推升作用;再考虑到基期效应,则在8—10月期间通胀率将达到甚至超过4%。而之后物价水平的同比变化预计在12月较快趋于缓和。
Food prices are the most important sub-items in the CPI; pork and vegetable prices are again the major sources of food price volatility. Therefore, this article takes pork and vegetable prices as the starting point, and analyzes the trend of CPI in the medium term. The conclusion is: In June-July, the year-on-year rise in CPI will remain moderate. From August to October, the pressure of year-on-year CPI increase will appear: on the basis of March, vegetable prices and pork prices will push the CPI up 1% MoM to 1.5%; other factors will also have some support and boost to the CPI Taking into account the base period effect, the inflation rate will reach or exceed 4% in the period from August to October. The year-on-year change in the price level is expected to ease more rapidly in December.