本文利用滤波、谱分析等方法分析与阐述了我国东海沿岸台风增水的基本特征。指出了它们与天文潮之间非线性耦合效应的普遍性与显著性。同时,本文还客观定量地寻求了台风暴雨导致的洪水在台风增水过程中的影响。在此基础上,应用筛选技术并借鉴Pore模式的构思,给出了吴淞、金山、乍浦、宁波、坎门、龙湾、温州和马尾这8个港口依据地面天气图实况,两种方案,时效为6、9、12小时的一种预报模式。 This paper analyzes and expounds the basic characteristics of typhoon water increase in the East China Sea by means of filtering and spectral analysis. It points out the universality and significance of the nonlinear coupling effect between them and astronomy tide. At the same time, this paper also objectively and quantitatively sought the influence of flood caused by typhoon storm on the typhoon water increase. Based on this, applying the screening technology and drawing on the conception of Pore model, we present the real-time and two scenarios based on the ground weather map of Wusong, Jinshan, Zhapu, Ningbo, Kanmen, Longwan, Wenzhou and Horsetail. 6,9,12 hours a forecast mode.