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对我国今后一段时期经济发展走向的认识,可以说是改革开放以来分歧最大的。乐观者认为我国仍然能够在较长时期内保持约8%的增长速度;悲观者则认为我国即将陷入发展陷阱。本文将从一国经济发展的内外环境及其相对国际竞争力变迁的角度,分析我国经济今后10年的变化趋势。
The understanding of the trend of our country’s economic development in the coming period can be described as the most disagreement since the reform and opening up. Optimists believe that our country will still be able to maintain a growth rate of about 8% over a long period of time. Pessimists think our country is about to fall into the trap of development. This article will analyze the changing trend of our country’s economy in the next 10 years from the perspective of the internal and external environment of the economic development of a country and the changes of its relative international competitiveness.