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百万吨死亡率是煤炭安全生产的一个重要考核指标,为准确预测煤炭行业安全生产的总趋势,利用灰色系统相关理论,建立了煤炭行业百万吨死亡率的GM(1,1)预测模型。同时鉴于GM(1,1)模型预测精度很低,建立残差修正GM(1,1)预测模型对模型进行了二次修正,并利用该修正模型成功预测出我国煤矿2009年的百万吨死亡率将首次降到1以下,权威机构数据表明,预测结果是可参考的。
In order to accurately forecast the general trend of safety in the coal industry, the mortality rate of 1 million tons is an important assessment index of coal production safety. Based on the gray system theory, the GM (1,1) forecasting model of 1 million tons of coal in the coal industry is established . In the meantime, in view of the low prediction accuracy of GM (1,1) model, a residual correction GM (1,1) prediction model is established to make a secondary correction to the model, and the revised model is used to predict the mass production of millions of tons For the first time, the mortality rate will fall below 1, data from authoritative agencies shows that the forecast results are for reference.