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目的研究气象因素影响广东省手足口病流行的阈值效应,为该省手足口病预警和防控提供科学依据。方法利用2009-2012年广东省手足口病监测数据和同期的气象数据,建立分类回归树模型,探明气象因素影响手足口病发病的阈值效应,并预测2013年手足口病的高风险时段。结果回归树模型结果显示当平均气温≥193.7(0.1℃)并且平均相对湿度≥79.21(1%)时,发病的相对危险度达到最大,RR=1.92。分类树模型结果显示当平均气温≥197.5(0.1℃),并且平均相对湿度≥77.39(1%)时,手足口病的暴发风险最大(P=0.786)。最后预测结果显示4-9月是高风险时段。结论基于分类回归树模型的阈值效应研究在手足口病危险因素筛选和发病风险的预警等方面具有一定的实用价值。
Objective To study the threshold effect of meteorological factors on the prevalence of HFMD in Guangdong Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD in this province. Methods Using the monitoring data of hand-foot-mouth disease and the meteorological data of the same period from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong Province, a classification regression tree model was established to detect the threshold effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and predict the high-risk period of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2013. Results The regression tree model showed that the relative risk reached the maximum when the average temperature was ≥193.7 (0.1 ℃) and the average relative humidity was ≥79.21 (1%), RR = 1.92. The classification tree model showed that outbreaks of HFMD were at the highest risk (P = 0.786) when the average temperature was ≥197.5 (0.1 ° C) and the average relative humidity was ≥77.39 (1%). The final forecast shows that 4-9 months is a high-risk period. Conclusion The study of threshold effect based on classification and regression tree model has certain practical value in the screening of risk factors of HFMD and the early warning of the risk of onset.