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首先计算出1998—2014年金砖国家与美国贸易间高碳产业与低碳产业的净出口消费指数,通过对比分析该指数研究是否存在高碳产业跨国界转移现象。然后基于静态模型与动态模型,以及工具变量法和广义矩估计控制相关变量的内生性问题,利用金砖国家1992—2012年的面板数据考察国际贸易与碳排放间的关系。研究结果表明,高碳产业与低碳产业均发生了产业转移,并且表现为双向转移;国际贸易开放度提高使得金砖国家碳排放以及人均碳排放增加。由此,笔者认为金砖国家应优化贸易结构,以减少对其贸易伙伴国的隐含碳排放。
First, calculate the net export consumption index between high-carbon industry and low-carbon industry between BRICS countries and US trade from 1998 to 2014. Through comparative analysis of this index, we investigate whether there is a cross-border transfer of high-carbon industries. Then based on the static model and dynamic model, as well as the instrumental variable method and the generalized moment estimation to control the endogenous problems of related variables, we use the panel data of the BRICS from 1992 to 2012 to examine the relationship between international trade and carbon emissions. The research results show that both the high-carbon industry and the low-carbon industry have undergone industrial transfer, and have shown a two-way transfer; the increase in international trade openness has increased the carbon emissions and the per capita carbon emissions of the BRICS countries. Therefore, the author believes that BRICS countries should optimize the trade structure in order to reduce the implicit carbon emissions of their trading partners.