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在泾河合水川流域1964~2011年的年降雨、径流变化特征分析基础上,利用Mann-Kendall法、双累计曲线法定量分析了其趋势及相互关系,并探讨了变化成因。结果表明,1964~2011年的年降雨量呈轻微下降趋势(P=0.52),年变率-0.04 mm/a;径流深呈不显著下降趋势(P=0.97),年变率-0.10 mm/a。变化趋势与泾河东北部、黄河河口-龙门区间西南部类似,与黄河中游其它子流域差异较大。二者突变年份分别为2000年和1978年。1964~1978年是该流域降雨-径流关系的天然时期,1979年后受水保工程修建、植被覆盖增加等人类活动影响,降雨-径流关系发生变化。
Based on the analysis of annual rainfall and runoff variation from 1964 to 2011 in the Hechuan River basin of Jinghe River, the trends and correlations were quantitatively analyzed by Mann-Kendall method and double cumulative curve method, and the causes of the changes were discussed. The results showed that the annual rainfall in 1964-2011 showed a slight downward trend (P = 0.52), annual change rate -0.04 mm / a; runoff depth showed no significant decline (P = 0.97), annual change rate -0.10 mm / a. The trend is similar to the northeast of the Jinghe River and the southwestern part of the Yellow River Estuary-Longmen Section, but differs greatly from other sub-basins in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The year of mutation was 2000 and 1978 respectively. From 1964 to 1978, it was a natural period of rainfall-runoff relationship in this basin. After 1979, it was affected by human activities such as the improvement of water conservation project and the increase of vegetation cover, and the relationship between rainfall and runoff changed.