对洪灾系统作综合风险研究,已是防洪减灾理论发展的一大趋势.在洪灾风险的同异反综合分析方法(概念模型)的基础上,以不确定性系数i对风险的影响为切入点,并进行适当的扩展与变换,将同异反综合分析方法进一步深入,建立了洪灾综合风险分析的模拟模型框架,初步得到了洪灾综合风险分析的可行途径. The study on the comprehensive risk of flood disaster system has become a major trend of flood control and disaster reduction theory development.On the basis of the same-contrary and anti-comprehensive analysis method of flood risk (conceptual model), the author takes the influence of uncertainty coefficient i as risk factor , Expand and transform appropriately, and further analyze the same-opposite and anti-comprehensive analysis methods. The simulation model framework of integrated flood risk analysis is established, and the feasible approach of comprehensive risk analysis of floods is preliminarily obtained.