论文部分内容阅读
全面分析洪灾对流域内各子行政区的经济损失可以为精准化灾害管理政策和防洪减灾措施的制定提供科学依据。本文以长江三角洲流域(简称长三角流域)为例,建立了长三角流域内多区域可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE)模型,深入分析了2011年长三角流域洪灾对流域内上海、浙江和江苏经济影响的空间和行业特征,并且构建间接影响系数来反映流域内不同区域和行业受洪灾的间接波及程度。结果表明:洪灾对长三角流域内3个省市经济冲击幅度明显不同,农业和房地产业是受到冲击最大的行业;从波及程度来看,上海受洪灾的间接影响波及程度要高于流域内江苏和浙江;食品制造加工业和纺织工业间接影响波及程度要高于其他行业。本文认为,多区域CGE模型不但能够定量化评估洪灾的对流域内经济的间接影响,并且可以细致地反映间接影响在流域内部的区域和行业特征。
A comprehensive analysis of the economic losses caused by floods to all sub-regions in the basin can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of accurate disaster management policies and flood control and disaster reduction measures. This paper takes the Yangtze River Delta Basin as an example to establish a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in the Yangtze River Delta Basin, and analyzes in depth the impacts of floods in the Yangtze River Delta basin in 2011 on the CGE model in Shanghai, And the spatial and trade characteristics of Jiangsu’s economic impact, and establish indirect impact coefficients to reflect the indirect impact of floods in different regions and industries in the basin. The results show that floods have obvious impact on the economic impact of the three provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Delta. Agriculture and real estate are the industries most affected by the floods. From the degree of impact, the indirect impact of floods in Shanghai is higher than that of Jiangsu And Zhejiang; the indirect impact of the food manufacturing and processing industries and the textile industry is higher than that of other industries. This paper argues that the multi-regional CGE model can not only quantitatively assess the indirect impacts of floods on the intra-basin economy, but also reflect the indirect impacts on the regional and industrial characteristics in the basin.