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今年下半年世界贸易将出现回升尽管最近几个月以来,出现全球性大衰退的风险已经下降,但与早先作出的评估相比,新兴市场国家的危险很可能会更加深重。去年12月初发布的对发展中国家经济增长率的预测为2.5%,而到了1999年,这个预测数下降到了1.5%。这个预测值是1982年以来的最低值。预计到2001年,发展中国家的 GDP 增长率才能恢复到从前4.5%～5.0%的水平。预计今年下半年世界贸易将出现回升。发展中国家的净长期资金(包括私人和官方资金)由1997年的3380亿美元下落至1998年的2750亿美元。而流入到发展中国
World trade will rebound in the second half of the year Despite the fact that the risk of a global recession has declined in recent months, the dangers of emerging market countries are likely to be even deeper than the earlier assessments. The forecast for the economic growth rate of developing countries released in early December last year was 2.5%, and by 1999, this forecast had dropped to 1.5%. This forecast is the lowest since 1982. It is expected that by 2001, the GDP growth rate of developing countries will return to the previous level of 4.5% to 5.0%. It is expected that world trade will rebound in the second half of this year. The net long-term financial resources (including private and official funds) of developing countries fell from 383 billion U.S. dollars in 1997 to 275 billion U.S. dollars in 1998. Inflow to development in China