分析了岩石的破裂过程 ,认为地震是非线性系统失稳的结果 .加卸载响应比反映了岩体趋近应力峰值的程度 ,其异常仅标志着某地区具有发生地震的危险性 .指出临震预报的困难在于地震往往发生在应力峰值之后 ,同时还讨论了临震预报的可能性 . The failure process of the rock is analyzed, and the result shows that the earthquake is the result of the instability of the nonlinear system. The unloading response ratio reflects the degree that the rock mass approaches the peak of stress, and the anomaly only indicates the danger of earthquakes occurred in a certain area. The difficulty is that earthquakes tend to occur after stress peaks and the possibility of a quasi-earthquake prediction is also discussed.