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本文对上海世博会相关数据采用差值拟合、回归分析、Logistic等方法分别处理,得到入沪国际旅游人数、上海旅游总收入和上海旅游从业人数如下:假设无世博会:683.8535万人、2511.7亿元、191610人;开展世博会:700万人、3100亿元、291610人。整体采用层次分析模型,得出2010年上海举办世博会和未举办世博会对旅游业影响的权重分别占组合权重的0.5479、0.4521,相对于未举办世博会的情况下,举办世博会对上海旅游业的影响提高了21.19%。
In this paper, the relevant data of Shanghai World Expo were processed by difference fitting, regression analysis and Logistic respectively to get the number of international tourists to Shanghai, the total tourism revenue of Shanghai and the number of Shanghai tourism practitioners as follows: Suppose there is no World Expo: 683.8535 million, 251.17 billion yuan , 191,610 people; to carry out the World Expo: 700 million, 310 billion yuan, 291,610 people. As a whole, the model of AHP was used to conclude that the weight of tourism impact caused by the World Expo held in Shanghai in 2010 and not held by the World Expo were 0.5479 and 0.4521, respectively. Compared with the situation without the World Expo, the impact of hosting the Expo on the tourism industry in Shanghai increased 21.19%.