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采用 195 1年至 1999年湖北省荆沙市和监利县的资料 ,对荆江大堤的管涌等险情与水情要素 (年最高水位、设防水位持续天数、警戒水位持续天数 )分别进行相关分析。结果显示 :水情要素与管涌显著相关 ,其中最为密切的是警戒水位持续天数 ,其次是设防水位持续天数。采用多项式对 195 1年至 1985年发生的管涌与年最高水位、设防水位持续天数、警戒水位持续天数分别进行拟合。荆沙市的警戒水位持续天数达到 12d后 ,管涌明显增加。监利县的警戒水位累计达到 30d后 ,管涌明显增加
Based on the data from Jingsha City and Jianli County in Hubei Province from1991 to 1999, the author analyzed the dangerous situations such as the pipe pounding of the Jingjiang Levee and the hydrological elements (the maximum water level, the duration of fortification water level and the duration of warning water level). The results show that the factors of water regime are significantly related to pipe bursts, the most closely related is the number of days the warning water level lasts and the second is the duration of the water level. Polynomials were used to fit the tube surge and the highest annual water level, the duration of fortification water level and the number of days of warning water level respectively from 195 to 1985. Jingsha City, the warning water level continued to 12d, the tube surge increased significantly. After the warning water level of Jianli County reached a total of 30 days, the pipe surge obviously increased