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管道停输后再启动失败(即凝管)是含蜡原油管道安全运行的主要威胁.传统的管道再启动安全性评价采用确定性方法,未考虑相关参数随机波动的影响。本文基于可靠性思想,综合考虑运行参数、油品物性参数以及环境参数的不确定性,从管道再启动失效机理出发,建立了基于流量恢复的极限状态函数,并引入干涉原理对其进行求解;研究了输量、管径、土壤温度等随机参数均值变化对管道再启动失效概率的影响,实现了以概率形式定量描述管道再启动的安全性,提出了基于可靠性的输油温度和安全停输时间确定方法.
Failure of pipeline start-up (ie, coagulation tube) is the main threat to the safe operation of waxy crude oil pipeline.Traditional safety evaluation of pipeline restarting adopts the deterministic method without considering the influence of stochastic fluctuation of relevant parameters. Based on the reliability theory, considering the uncertainties of operating parameters, oil physical parameters and environmental parameters, a limit state function based on flow recovery is established from the failure mechanism of pipeline restart, and the interference principle is introduced to solve the problem. The influence of the mean value of the random parameters such as input, pipe diameter and soil temperature on the failure probability of pipeline restart was studied, and the safety of pipeline restarting was quantitatively described. The reliability of oil temperature and safety stop Lose time to determine the method.