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以 2 0多年某兵工厂职工与当地居民的死亡数据为基础 ,编制截缩简略寿命表 ,1 974～ 1 997年2 0岁职工的预期寿命由 48 2 9岁增加到 5 6 2 9岁 ,与居民接近。死亡概率 (qx) ,30～ 45岁 ,6 5～ 75岁比值 (职工 /居民 ) >1 0 ,与工伤、交通事故的频率及肿瘤的死亡率有关。用灰色理论模型预测 1 998～ 2 0 0 5年 2 0岁职工预期寿命 ,结果分别为 6 5 2 7岁与 6 7 80岁。
Based on the death statistics of an arsenal worker and local residents for more than 20 years, a shortened life expectancy table was prepared. The life expectancy of 20-year-old workers between 1974 and 1997 was increased from 4829 to 5619 years old. Residents approach. The probability of death (qx), 30 to 45 years old, and the ratio of 6 to 75 years old (employees/residents) >1 0, is related to the number of work-related injuries, the frequency of traffic accidents, and the mortality rate of tumors. The grey theoretical model was used to predict the life expectancy of 20-year-old workers from 1998 to 2005. The results were 6 527 years old and 67 years old.