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基于最新的CMIP5中HadGEM2-ES全球气候模式预估数据,研究黄淮平原典型区域中牟县作物灌溉需水量对未来气候变化的响应。根据HadGEM2-ES全球气候模式预估的逐日降水、气温数据,结合研究区气象历史资料,建立气象要素统计降尺度模型,预测RCP8.5、RCP4.5、RCP2.6高、中、低三种排放情景下研究区气象要素,并由Penman-Monteith公式计算主要作物冬小麦和夏玉米的灌溉需水量,分析作物灌溉需水量对未来气候变化的响应。结果表明,未来气候情境下,气温升高,蒸发量增大,降水量有所增加,导致研究区冬小麦灌溉需水量减少,夏玉米灌溉需水量增大。从三种气候情景的平均预测结果来看,未来15年冬小麦灌溉需水量减少10.73%,夏玉米灌溉需水量增加14.23%;未来35年冬小麦灌溉需水量减少15.74%,夏玉米灌溉需水量增加18.03%。
Based on the latest HadgEM2-ES global climate model prediction data from CMIP5, the response of crop irrigation water demand to climate change in Zhongmu County in the typical area of Huang-Huai Plain was studied. According to the daily precipitation and temperature data predicted by HadGEM2-ES global climate model, combined with the historical meteorological data of the study area, a statistical downscaling model of meteorological elements was established to predict the high, middle and low RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 According to the Penman-Monteith formula, the irrigation water requirement of the main crops, winter wheat and summer maize, was calculated and the response of crop irrigation water demand to future climate change was analyzed. The results showed that under the future climate conditions, the temperature increased, the evaporation increased and the precipitation increased, which led to the decrease of winter wheat irrigation water requirement and the increase of irrigation water requirement of summer maize. From the average forecast results of the three climate scenarios, the irrigation water requirement of winter wheat decreased by 10.73% and the summer maize irrigation water requirement increased by 14.23% in the next 15 years; the irrigation water requirement of winter wheat decreased by 15.74% in the next 35 years and the irrigation water requirement of summer maize increased by 18.03 %.