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利用基尼系数,分析广东省邮电通信业务量1980~2006年的变化趋势,在此基础上,选取1985年、1995年和2005年3个时间断面,利用因子分析剖析邮电业务水平的空间分布格局,并在GIS软件中表达出来,进而构建邮电通信发展指数P,反映各市的邮电通信发展速度。研究表明:广东省邮电通信业务量的分布经历了20世纪80年代的广州单中心,90年代初的广州、深圳双中心,90年代中以来的广州、深圳、佛山、东莞两主两副四中心,朝着多极化方向发展。邮电通信水平的空间格局则经历了“均衡—不均衡—均衡”的发展过程,变异系数从1985年的1.574到1995年的1.870,2005年变为1.115。邮电通信发展速度1985年开始呈现出珠三角城市明显高于外围城市的格局,且高于平均水平的城市数量不断增加,范围不断扩大。通过多元回归分析得出,除政策因素以外,外商投资作用和第三产业、城市化发展水平是1980年以来影响广东省邮电通信业发展最主要的3个因素,而人口密度、交通发展水平、固定资产投资水平等对邮电通信发展的影响不显著。
Using the Gini coefficient, this paper analyzes the trend of the postal and telecommunication traffic in Guangdong Province from 1980 to 2006. Based on this, we select the three time periods in 1985, 1995 and 2005 and analyze the spatial distribution pattern of postal and telecommunications service level by factor analysis, And expressed in the GIS software, and then build the telecommunications development index P, reflecting the city’s post and telecommunications speed. The research shows that the distribution of postal and telecommunications traffic in Guangdong experienced the single centers in Guangzhou in the 1980s and the dual centers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the early 1990s. Since the mid-1990s, the two main four centers of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan , Toward multi-polarization direction. The spatial pattern of postal and telecommunications communication experienced a process of “equilibrium-disequilibrium-equilibrium” with a coefficient of variation from 1.574 in 1985 to 1.870 in 1995 and 1.115 in 2005. The development speed of post and telecommunication started to show the pattern that the cities in the Pearl River Delta were significantly higher than the peripheral cities in 1985, and the number of cities above the average level continued to increase and the area expanded continuously. Through multiple regression analysis, it is concluded that except for the policy factors, the role of foreign investment and the tertiary industry and urbanization are the three most important factors that have influenced the development of post and telecommunications in Guangdong since 1980. However, the population density, traffic level, The level of investment in fixed assets has no significant effect on the development of post and telecommunications.