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本文检验了小麦市场、玉米市场和食糖市场的价格联系。研究发现,中国小麦市场和玉米市场、玉米市场和食糖市场之间存在紧密的价格联系,伴随着玉米深加工业的快速发展,较低的小麦/玉米比价使小麦替代玉米的数量不断扩大;同时,当玉米/食糖比价处于较低水平时,大量玉米将转化为淀粉糖。小麦市场和玉米市场、玉米市场和食糖市场之间的价格联系类似于二元经济模型所刻画的经济关系,被管制的小麦市场为玉米深加工业源源不断地提供原料,促进了玉米深加工业快速发展,其结果是,不仅大幅度增加了保障国家粮食安全的政策成本,还因大量出口玉米深加工产品污染了国内环境、补贴了国外消费者。
This article examines the price links between the wheat, corn and sugar markets. The study found that there is a close price connection between the Chinese wheat market and the corn market, the corn market and the sugar market. With the rapid development of the corn deep processing industry, the lower wheat / maize parity has led to the continuous expansion of the wheat replacement maize. At the same time, When the corn / sugar ratio is at a low level, a large amount of corn will be converted into starch sugar. The price link between the wheat market and the corn market, the corn market and the sugar market is similar to that portrayed in the economic model of the dual economy where the regulated wheat market supplies raw materials to the deep processing of maize and contributes to the rapid development of deep processing of corn As a result, not only has policy costs for ensuring national food security been significantly increased, but domestic consumers have also been subsidized by the massive export of corn deep-processing products to the domestic environment.