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生猪市场价格的超常波动逆向加剧生猪养殖环节的不确定性,给中国生猪产业健康发展带来巨大风险。玉米是生猪饲养投入品的重要原料,选择STR模型,使用2000年1月~2015年6月玉米和生猪价格月度数据进行实证分析,证实并阐述玉米价格对生猪价格平滑转换的非线性传导机制及其过程。在此基础上,测度机制转化的阈值,根据平滑转化机制及其阈值,提出平抑生猪价格超常波动、维护生猪产业健康的策略。
The abnormal fluctuations in the market price of live pigs aggravate the uncertainty in pig breeding and pose a great risk to the healthy development of China’s pig industry. Corn is an important raw material for hog input. Selecting STR model, using the monthly data of corn and hog prices from January 2000 to June 2015 for empirical analysis, confirms and expounds the nonlinear conduction mechanism of corn price on hog price smooth transition and Its process. On this basis, the threshold of transformation mechanism is measured, and according to the smooth transition mechanism and its threshold, the strategy of stabilizing the fluctuating hog prices and maintaining the health of hog industry is put forward.