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本文使用SVAR模型,分上海、浙江和江苏三个行政区域对各产业投资对长三角的宏观经济效应进行了比较分析,研究表明:①上海的一、二、三产业投资均提高长三角产出和居民消费,对长三角就业增长率有不显著的负影响;②浙江和江苏的第一产业投资在短期中可以提高长三角产出和居民消费,但对长三角的就业影响有限;③浙江和江苏的第二、三产业投资,在大幅提高长三角产出和居民消费的同时,也对长三角就业的增长率有积极影响,并且这种影响均呈现递增趋势,随时间推移,可较好地提高长三角经济整体的就业率。
This paper uses the SVAR model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of various industries on the Yangtze River Delta by means of three administrative regions in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. The results show that: (1) The investment in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in Shanghai all increases the output of the Yangtze River Delta And resident consumption, there is no significant negative impact on the employment growth rate in the Yangtze River Delta; (2) The primary industry investment in Zhejiang and Jiangsu can increase output and household consumption in the Yangtze River Delta in the short run, but the employment impact on the Yangtze River Delta is limited; And the second and tertiary industries in Jiangsu have significantly increased the output and household consumption in the Yangtze River Delta and also have a positive impact on the growth rate of employment in the Yangtze River Delta. All these effects show an increasing trend over time, Well to improve the overall employment rate in the Yangtze River Delta economy.