论文部分内容阅读
交通运输业和电信业被认为是中国2003年SARS期间受影响的两个典型产业,本研究收集了1997～2003年中国内地的客运量数据和电信业务量数据,采用灰色系统理论预测模型定量评估SARS对交通运输业和电信业造成的影响。通过两个行业数据和SARS疫情数据的时间序列关系分析,发现SARS疫情对交通运输业造成的负面影响很大,而且损失是不可恢复的,损失峰值与疫情死亡人数峰值保持同步,疫情对电信业发展并没有产生预想中的明显推动作用。
Transport and telecommunications are considered as two typical industries affected by China’s SARS in 2003. This study collected passenger traffic data and telecommunication traffic data of the Mainland of China from 1997 to 2003 and used gray system theory to predict the quantitative assessment of the model The impact of SARS on transport and telecommunications. Through the analysis of the time series relationship between the two industry data and the SARS epidemic data, it was found that the SARS epidemic had a great negative impact on the transportation industry and the loss was unrecoverable. The peak value of the loss and the peak of the number of deaths in the epidemic remained the same. Development did not produce the expected significant effect of promotion.