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2013/14榨季已结束,中国累计生产食糖1 331.8万t,销售食糖1 140.4万t。2014年中国食糖总体产量增加,但主产区日益集中;销糖量和销糖率均同比下降;配额外食糖纳入自动进口许可管理;厄尔尼诺气候影响贯穿全年。展望后市,短期内,过剩库存仍使国内外糖价承压,随着库存压力缓解,国际糖市供给或由剩转缺,2014/15榨季国内也将进入减产周期,长期存在上涨动能。后期需继续关注巴西和印度等食糖主产国的天气变化、巴西食糖用蔗比例和印度进出口补贴政策变化、汇率变化以及宏观经济动态等焦点因素。
The 2013/14 crop season has ended, with China producing 11.318 million tons of sugar and 11.44 million tons of sugar for sale. In 2014, the overall output of sugar in China increased, but the main producing areas were increasingly concentrated; the sales volume of sugar and the sales rate of sugar dropped year on year; the quota of extra sugar was included in the administration of automatic import license; and the El Niño climate impact ran through the year. Looking ahead, in the short term, excess inventories will keep domestic and international sugar prices under pressure. With the pressure of stocks alleviated and the supply of international sugar market or the shortage of surplus sugar left over, the country will also enter the reduction cycle in the 2014/15 crop season with long-term upward momentum. The latter part of the need to continue to focus on weather changes in major producing countries such as Brazil and India, sugar cane proportion in Brazil and India’s import and export subsidies policy changes, exchange rate changes and macroeconomic dynamics and other focus factors.