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本文通过建立协整模型研究了产业结构高级化对经济增长和经济波动的影响效应,并引入虚拟变量比较了1992-2000和2000-2012年两阶段产业结构高级化的影响差异,研究发现产业结构高级化与经济增长和波动间存在着长期均衡,劳动、资本和技术密集产业已经不适宜作为社会主导产业来促进经济增长,而第三产业的发展对我国经济增长的促进作用和对经济风险的缓释作用呈现明显下降趋势。
This paper studies the effect of the advanced industrial structure on economic growth and economic fluctuation through the establishment of a cointegration model. By introducing the dummy variables, this paper compares the differences in the two-stage industrial structure advancedization between 1992-2000 and 2000-2012, and finds that the industrial structure There is a long-term equilibrium between high-levelization and economic growth and fluctuations. Labor, capital and technology-intensive industries are no longer suitable as social leading industries to promote economic growth. The role of tertiary industry in promoting economic growth and economic risks Slow release showed a significant downward trend.