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政府如何适时调整在经济发展中的作用是中等收入国家改革的关键问题。文章基于1950~2011年两类国家的经验研究发现:(1)跨越中等收入陷阱的国家成功实现了主要增长动力由要素投入向要素使用效率的转型,而陷入中等收入陷阱的国家形成了对要素投入增长路径的依赖。(2)政府干预对经济增长的影响取决于经济增长的主要动力。在以要素投入为主要增长动力的发展阶段,政府干预通过引导资源配置、促进要素积累的途径促进经济增长,但是该效应随着发展阶段的演进逐渐减弱;而在以要素使用效率为主要增长动力的更高发展阶段,政府干预则会抑制要素使用效率对经济增长的促进作用。这意味着,尽管中等收入国家的政府干预面临两难权衡,但适时淡出政府干预,有利于打破对
How to adjust the role of government in economic development timely is the key issue for the reform of middle-income countries. Based on the empirical studies of two countries from 1950 to 2011, we find that: (1) Countries that cross the middle-income trap have managed to achieve the transformation from factor input to factor efficiency, with countries that have fallen into the middle-income trap, Depend on the growth path. (2) The impact of government intervention on economic growth depends on the main driving force of economic growth. In the stage of development with the input of factors as the main driving force, government intervention promotes economic growth by guiding the allocation of resources and promoting the accumulation of factors, but the effect gradually declines with the gradual progress of the development stage; while using factor efficiency as the main driving force Of the higher stage of development, government intervention will inhibit the use of factor efficiency to promote economic growth. This means that although government interventions in middle-income countries face a dilemma, government intervention in a timely manner is likely to break