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本文通过把制度因素纳入到宏观经济增长模型,内生化处理制度变迁,分析了所建立经济系统中均衡点存在性。从路径依赖的程度解读了制度的自我增加效应和低效率的锁定效应;从制度与经济增长的相互影响视角解读了制度红利:从技术对制度变迁的影响分析了技术对经济增长存在直接和间接效应。以产权保护制度为例,采用面板联立方程分析了制度、技术等因素对中国经济增长和对制度变迁的影响,并指出在当前人口红利逐步消失,外贸环境不利的条件下,继续释放制度红利和推动技术进步是决定未来中国发展的重要因素。
This article analyzes the existence of the equilibrium point in the established economic system by including the institutional factors into the macroeconomic growth model and the change of the endogenous chemical treatment system. From the perspective of path dependence, we can see the system’s self-increasing effect and inefficient locking effect. It also explains the system dividend from the perspective of the interaction between system and economic growth: from the impact of technology on institutional change. It analyzes the direct and indirect effects of technology on economic growth effect. Taking the system of property rights protection as an example, this paper analyzes the influence of institutional and technological factors on the economic growth and institutional changes in China by using panel simultaneous equations. It also points out that under the condition of gradual disappearance of demographic dividend and unfavorable foreign trade environment, And to promote technological progress is an important factor that determines the development of China in the future.