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基于扩展的Johan恒等式及广义费雪指数分解(GFI)方法,建立了1995～2010年中国能源消费人均碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了产业能源结构、产业能源强度、产业结构、经济产出四个因素对我国能源消费的人均碳排放的影响。对比拉氏指数和D氏指数分解法,姑模型具有更好的因素分解特性,能够消除分解的残差项,使得分解结果更加准确。实证结果显示:经济产出的持续增长是我国人均碳排放增长的主导因素,该阶段总贡献比例为42.84%;产业能源结构与产业结构对我国人均碳排放的增长起到了微弱的拉动效应,贡献比例分别为21.99%和21.24%;而产业能源强度对我国的人均碳排放的增长呈现显著的抑制效应,贡献比例为13.94%,并且产业能源强度的抑制作用表现出逐年增强的趋势。
Based on the extended Johan identities and the generalized Fisher index (GFI) method, a decomposition model of per capita carbon emission factors in China from 1995 to 2010 was established to quantitatively analyze the industrial energy structure, industrial energy intensity, industrial structure, economic output IV The Impact of Individual Factors on Per Capita Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in China. Compared with the Laplace index and the D index decomposition method, the Gu model has better factorization characteristics, which can eliminate the residuals of decomposition and make the decomposition results more accurate. The empirical results show that the sustained growth of economic output is the dominant factor of per capita carbon emissions growth in China, with a total contribution rate of 42.84% at this stage. The industrial energy structure and industrial structure have a weak pulling effect on the growth of per capita carbon emissions in China. The proportions of energy consumption and industrial energy intensity are 21.99% and 21.24% respectively, while industrial energy intensity has a significant inhibitory effect on the growth of China’s per capita carbon emissions, accounting for 13.94% of the total. And the inhibitory effect of industrial energy intensity shows a trend of increasing year by year.