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目的应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测某区出血热(epidemic hemorrhagic fever,EHF)发病趋势,为制定针对性的防治管理措施提供依据。方法根据某区2004—2013年的EHF发病率,应用灰色系统理论建立发病率预测模型,进行预测研究。结果求得某区EHF发病率(1/10万)的灰色预测模型为:^Y=-77.217 8 e-0.190 8(t-1)+91.717 8,拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度好(C=0.27<0.35,P=1),能够较好地预测EHF发病率的趋势。结论预测表明2014—2015年某区EHF年发病率呈下降趋势,应继续强化疫情监测,加大防鼠灭鼠力度,积极推广EHF疫苗接种,进一步巩固防治成果。
Objective To predict the incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever (EHF) in a district by GM (1,1) gray model and provide evidence for the establishment of targeted prevention and control measures. Methods According to the incidence of EHF in a certain area from 2004 to 2013, the gray system theory was used to establish the morbidity prediction model, and the prediction was studied. Results The gray prediction model for the incidence of EHF in a certain area (1/10000) was: Y = -77.217 8 e-0.190 8 (t-1) +91.717 8. The fitting test showed that the fitting accuracy of this model was good C = 0.27 <0.35, P = 1), the trend of the incidence of EHF can be predicted better. Conclusions The prediction shows that the annual incidence of EHF in a district is declining from 2014 to 2015. EHF surveillance should be further strengthened, the anti-rodent control efforts should be intensified, EHF vaccination should be actively promoted to further consolidate the prevention and treatment results.