论文部分内容阅读
目的估计2015年浙江省存活的艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)人数,探索适宜的艾滋病疫情估计方法。方法收集2015年浙江省11个市艾滋病主要受累人群的规模和HIV感染率等数据,主要应用Workbook模型估计艾滋病流行现状。结果 2015年浙江省估计HIV/AIDS人数为20 902人(15 439~26 365),估计男男性接触人群HIV/AIDS人数为10 567人(7 699~13 435),其中城市占35.2%,农村占15.4%;估计异性性传播HIV/AIDS人数为9 745人(7 214~12 277),其中商业性占27.1%,非商业占19.5%;经注射吸毒、血液和母婴传播仅占2.1%、0.4%和0.3%。浙江省估计HIV感染率为0.038%(0.028%~0.048%),地区间存在较大差异。结论 Workbook模型是开展艾滋病疫情估计的适宜工具,其估计结果对浙江省的艾滋病防治工作具有指导意义。
Objective To estimate the number of survivors of HIV / AIDS and HIV / AIDS in Zhejiang Province in 2015 and to explore appropriate AIDS epidemic estimation methods. Methods The data of HIV-infected persons and HIV prevalence in 11 cities of Zhejiang Province in 2015 were collected. The Workbook model was used to estimate the prevalence of HIV / AIDS. Results In 2015, the estimated HIV / AIDS population was 20 902 (15 439 ~ 26 365) in Zhejiang Province. The estimated HIV / AIDS population of MSM was 10 567 (7699-13 435), of which 35.2% were urban and rural Accounting for 15.4%. The number of HIV / AIDS patients with heterosexual transmission is estimated at 9 745 (7 214 to 12 277), of which 27.1% were commercial and 19.5% non-commercial. Only 2.1% , 0.4% and 0.3%. Zhejiang Province estimated HIV infection rate was 0.038% (0.028% ~ 0.048%), there is a big difference between regions. Conclusion The Workbook model is a suitable tool for AIDS epidemic estimation. The estimation results are instructive for the prevention and control of AIDS in Zhejiang Province.