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本文采用计量经济学中的协整理论,定量研究能源消费量和能源供应量与能源价格、经济发展、产业结构、人口和城镇化等因素之间的波动影响程度。首先采用Augment Dickey-Fuller模型检验指标变量的时间序列数据的平稳性,其次采用Lagrange乘数模型定量计算全国范围内的能源消费量及能源供应量与相关影响因素之间的协整关系。结果表明能耗指标与人口和城镇化指标均对能源供应量有显著影响;能源消费量主要受产业结构和经济指标影响,而受能源价格波动影响较小。
This paper uses the cointegration theory in econometrics to quantitatively study the impact of fluctuations in energy consumption and energy supply on energy prices, economic development, industrial structure, population and urbanization. First, Augmented Dickey-Fuller model is used to test the stability of the time-series data of the index variables. Second, the Lagrange multiplier model is used to quantitatively calculate the co-integration relationship between energy consumption and energy supply and related factors in a nationwide scale. The results show that energy consumption indicators and population and urbanization indicators have a significant impact on energy supply; energy consumption is mainly affected by industrial structure and economic indicators, but less affected by fluctuations in energy prices.