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[目的]研究影响桔小实蝇种群变动的显著影响因子。[方法]利用逐步回归分析方法对云南建水县桔小实蝇种群数量变动的规律及影响其发生的气象因子进行分析,并建立回归模型,最后通过云南建水县2004～2006年数据对回归模型进行回检。[结果]影响桔小实蝇发生量的主要气象因子为相对湿度、月最低气温和降雨量。[结论]该研究为桔小实蝇发生时期、发生量以及发生高峰期的预测提供了参考。
[Objective] The research aimed to study the significant influencing factors that affect the population dynamics of the orange fruit fly. [Method] The stepwise regression analysis method was used to analyze the regularity of population dynamics and the meteorological factors that affected its occurrence in Jianshui County, Yunnan Province. The regression model was established. Finally, the data from 2004 to 2006 in Jianshui County, Yunnan Province were used for regression The model is checked back. [Result] The main meteorological factors influencing the occurrence of Trichosanthes flies were relative humidity, monthly minimum temperature and rainfall. [Conclusion] This study provides a reference for the occurrence, occurrence and peak occurrence of the fruit fly.