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基于2004-2013年中国国民经济分行业的统计数据,利用变系数模型分析了不同行业的对外投资逆向技术溢出的效果,并在控制了模型的内生性偏误后运用GMM估计了溢出的效果。通过构造门槛回归模型研究影响行业技术溢出效果的吸收能力因素,测算出导致行业积极逆向溢出的各门槛变量的门槛值。研究结果表明,对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出存在明显的行业差异性。面板模型的实证结果显示,考虑行业吸收能力因素的逆向技术溢出存在明显的门槛特征。
Based on the statistical data of China’s national economy in 2004-2013, the paper uses the variable coefficient model to analyze the effect of reverse technology spillovers of different industries in foreign investment, and estimates the effect of spillover by using GMM after controlling the endogenous bias of the model. By constructing the threshold regression model to study the absorptive capacity factors that affect the technology spillover effect of the industry, we can calculate the threshold of each threshold variable that leads to the industry’s positive reverse spillover. The results show that there are obvious industry differences in the reverse technology spillover of OFDI. The empirical results of the panel model show that there is a clear threshold characteristic of the reverse technology spillover considering the absorptive capacity of the industry.