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天然橡胶是关系国计民生的重要工业原料,研究天然橡胶消费与GDP之间的关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章采用协整、误差修正模型以及Granger因果检验方法定量地探讨了1978~2006年间中国天然橡胶消费量与GDP的关系。研究结果表明中国天然橡胶消费与经济增长之间存在协整关系,存在从经济增长到天然橡胶消费的单向因果关系。
Natural rubber is an important industrial raw material that has something to do with people’s livelihood and the people’s livelihood. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between natural rubber consumption and GDP. The article uses cointegration, error correction model and Granger causality test method to quantitatively discuss the relationship between natural rubber consumption and GDP in China from 1978 to 2006. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between natural rubber consumption and economic growth in China, and there is a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and natural rubber consumption.