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在对我国地方政府债务的研究中,大多数学者都通过理论分析,得出预算软约束是造成地方政府债务规模不断扩大的重要原因。本文使用我国省级面板数据从实证的角度对两者的关系进行了研究,发现在控制了人均GDP、固定资产投资和城镇化水平等变量后,预算软约束与地方政府债务之间存在显著的正相关关系,并且变换不同的指标后,估计结果依然较为稳健。本文首次通过实证方法验证了之前学者的理论推断,并根据研究结果,提出了通过硬化预算软约束控制地方政府债务规模的建议。
In the study of the local government debt in our country, most scholars have come to the theoretical analysis that the soft budget constraint is the main reason for the increasing scale of the local government debt. In this paper, we use the provincial panel data from the empirical point of view to study the relationship between the two and found that after controlling for such variables as per capita GDP, fixed asset investment and urbanization level, there are significant differences between the budget soft constraint and local government debt Positive correlation, and the transformation of different indicators, the estimated result is still relatively stable. For the first time, this paper validates the theoretical inference of previous scholars through empirical methods and puts forward some suggestions on how to control the scale of local government debt through hardening the soft budget constraint based on the research results.