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本文利用大规模村级调查数据,描述了近10年来农村地下水水位的变动状况,并通过一阶差分模型量化分析了导致水位下降的影响因素。研究发现,我国很多井灌区农村地下水水位呈下降趋势,黄河和海河流域是下降最严重的地区。模型估计结果表明,降水减少是水位下降的重要气候因素;井灌区农业灌溉率和深水机井比例的增加会加速水位的下降;农村工业用水需求的增加也是加速水位下降的重要因素。
Using large-scale village-level survey data, this paper describes the changes of groundwater level in rural areas in recent 10 years and quantifies the factors that lead to the decline of water level through the first-order difference model. The study found that the water table of rural areas in many well irrigation areas showed a downward trend, with the Yellow River and Haihe River valleys being the areas with the most serious declines. The results of model estimation show that the decrease of precipitation is an important climatic factor of water level declining. The increase of agricultural irrigation rate and proportion of deepwater well in well irrigation area will accelerate the decrease of water level. The increase of demand of rural industrial water is also an important factor to accelerate the decline of water level.