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水旱灾害是影响我国农业生产最重要的自然灾害,严重的旱涝灾害极易造成农业保险赔付的系统性风险。为从定量视角分析不同级别水旱灾害的风险损失,本文收集了1978年～2010年12个粮食主产省份的水灾与旱灾成灾率数据,构建了灾害波动测算模型,获得粮食主产区各年份水旱灾害的波动系数,并依据波动系数值对农业水旱灾害风险损失进行分级与评估,最后针对农业水旱灾害的超额损失和巨灾损失,从目标、思路和工具创新三个层次给出农业保险风险分担的改进对策。
Floods and droughts are the most important natural disasters affecting agricultural production in our country. Severe droughts and floods can easily cause systematic risks in the payment of agricultural insurance. In order to quantitatively analyze the risk losses of floods and droughts at different levels, this paper collected flood and drought disaster rate data from 12 major grain-producing provinces from 1978 to 2010, built a disaster fluctuation estimation model, Year fluctuation index of flood and drought disasters, and classify and evaluate the risk loss of agricultural floods and droughts according to the fluctuation coefficient value. Finally, in view of the excess loss and catastrophe losses of agricultural floods and droughts, from three aspects of goal, idea and tool innovation The Improvement of Agricultural Insurance Risk Sharing.